Forget USO. Copper Is the New Crude, and This Miner Fund Is Up 115% in a Year
Forget USO. Copper Is the New Crude, and This Miner Fund Is Up 115% in a Year
David BerenSun, June 28, 2026 at 4:34 PM UTC
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COPX delivered a 92% trailing 12-month return versus USO's contango-dragged crude exposure, which fell 22% in a single month.
FCX and SCCO, COPX's two largest holdings, posted sharply higher earnings as copper prices rose, a leverage effect USO cannot replicate.
The U.S. added copper to its Critical Minerals list as grid buildout, EVs, and AI data centers drive projected demand sharply higher through 2040.
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The United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO) does one thing: it gives investors a liquid way to bet on West Texas Intermediate crude without opening a futures account. That utility is real, which is why USO still attracts capital every time a Middle East headline crosses the wire. Holders are paying for directional crude exposure, and on a year-to-date basis, USO has delivered, returning 60.89% through June 23 as WTI swung from $55.44 in December 2025 to a $114.58 peak in April 2026. The question is whether crude is still the right commodity to own when the structural demand story has shifted to another metal.
Where USO Underperforms
Holding front-month WTI futures and rolling them forward exposes shareholders to contango whenever the curve slopes upward. The ETF also issues a K-1 at tax time, which complicates filings for anyone holding it in a taxable account. The bigger issue, though, is the underlying commodity itself. WTI fell 22.3% over the past month to $84.65 on June 15, and the 12-month average price sits at $73.15. Crude oil remains a geopolitical instrument at this point, and it is no longer a secular growth trade you can just buy and hold through any environment.
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Copper Has Taken Over the Demand Story
The Global X Copper Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:COPX) holds 46 copper mining positions and charges a 0.65% expense ratio on $7.71 billion in assets. The one-year total return through June 21 was +108%, though a sharp two-day selloff has trimmed the trailing 12-month figure to 92.29% as of June 23. That is backward-looking and reflects a cyclical sector at the top of its range. The structural case sits underneath it.
Copper demand is projected to rise materially through 2040, driven by grid buildout, EVs, defense, and AI data centers. The U.S. added copper to the USGS Critical Minerals list. Concentrate markets remain exceptionally tight, with treatment and refining charges compressed sharply this year.
The Operational Leverage USO Cannot Replicate
USO captures the spot move in oil minus roll drag. COPX captures the spot move in copper multiplied by miner operating leverage. The first-quarter prints from the fund's largest holdings illustrate the gap. Southern Copper (NYSE:SCCO), a 9.7% weight, posted higher year-over-year revenue and a negative operating cash cost per pound as by-product credits from silver and gold flipped the cost line below zero. Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX), at 9.9%, reported higher EPS on a stronger realized copper price, with net income rising sharply year over year. Other major holdings showed the same pattern: when realized copper prices step up, miner margins step up faster.
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The trailing dividend for this copper fund is $1.92, which works out to a 2.42% yield on a semi-annual schedule. The oil fund, USO, pays nothing at all.
The Real Tradeoffs
COPX is structured as an equity fund that holds mining stocks rather than providing physical or futures-based commodity exposure. Beta sits at 1.07, and the 52-week range of $41.51 to $99.99 shows how violent the swings can be. The fund dropped 11.49% in the past week alone. Holdings carry mine-level operational risk (the Grasberg mud rush still caps Indonesian output) and jurisdictional exposure in Peru, Chile, and the DRC. A China growth scare or a rate shock will hit COPX harder than it will hit a diversified equity ETF.
On the upside, the structural switch from K-1 to 1099 reporting simplifies tax filing, and the underlying exposure shifts from a futures roll to operating businesses that compound retained earnings.
Position Tradeoffs to Consider
For someone using the oil fund as a tactical crude bet, a rotation in an IRA would mean exiting that position, redeploying into the copper fund, COPX, and accepting the higher equity beta that comes with it. In a taxable account, the K-1 cost basis needs a thorough review before any sale, and a partial rotation may make more sense than a full one, especially given how extended copper miners look after a doubling. The real decision turns on whether the next decade of commodity demand looks more like grid copper or marginal barrels of oil. The data points to the former, but the caveat is that COPX is already priced for that outcome.
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Source: “AOL Money”
