Nevada expects $1 billion surplus for 2027-29 budget
Nevada expects $1 billion surplus for 2027-29 budget
Christopher Boan Fri, October 23, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC
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The Las Vegas Strip in August 2025 features the Bellagio on the left and Planet Hollywood and the Miracle Mile complex on the right in August 2025. Photo: Dave Mason / The Center Square
(The Center Square) - It looks like the Silver State struck gold for its $50.5 billion 2027-29 budget.
That’s the takeaway from Nevada budget officials and economists such as Orphe Divounguy of The Center Square after the state's projection of a $1 billion surplus.
During the Oct. 14 Economic Forum, state budget officials discussed how a surge and sales and tax revenue and record-high gaming percentage fees could push the state's budget $1 billion higher than the 2025-2027 fiscal year's $49.5 billion total during the biennial period from 2027 to 2029.
Such an increase would represent the latest in a long line of budget increases for the Silver State, with Nevada's budget increasing by 15.4% from the $46.924 billion that was allocated from the 2023 to 2025 fiscal years.
While no official budget numbers were released during the mid-October Economic Forum hearing, the projections showed lawmakers could have anywhere from $900 million to $1.64 billion more at their disposal in the upcoming two-year budget, according to the Nevada Independent.
"That one surprised us all," said Nevada Legislative Counsel Bureau economist Hayley Owens, referring to the $113 million sales and use tax surplus. Owens made her comment to the five-person board at the Economic Forum.
Nevada’s total sales and use tax bill for fiscal year 2026 wrapped up at $1.92 billion, up 8.5% year-over-year, while finishing $113 million ahead of where the state’s forecasters projected.
The Center Square reached out to Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo and his Democratic challenger in the Nov. 3 general election, Attorney General Aaron Ford, for comment, but did not hear back by publication time.
Throw in the nine-figure gaming percentage fees figure (the first such total in Nevada history), and you have the recipe for a budget surplus, according to Divounguy.
“It's a state that's outperforming other states, so I think that's positive,” Divounguy told The Center Square. “I think the big question is, 'What will they do with that money?' ”
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At its core, according to Divounguy, is whether Nevada’s governor and Legislature should squirrel away the projected budget surplus in the state’s coffers or disperse it among the state’s 3.1 million residents.
If Lombardo or Ford decide on the latter option, they’d likely have plenty to offer the average resident, with the state’s nine-figure budget increase equating out to roughly $340 per Nevada resident, based on 2020 Census information.
Whichever party takes control of state government in November could win over a lot of hearts and minds locally by divvying up the budget windfall, either through tax rebates or tax cuts for residents, Divounguy told The Center Square.
“The economy has been kind of slowing," the economist said. "Inflation has remained elevated, and so this is maybe a good time to take some of that money to support local residents."
An uneven future
Multiple speakers at the Nevada Economic Forum’s latest meeting referenced the state’s “K-shaped” economic recovery, where wealthier Americans are spending more in places like Las Vegas while those in the lower economic classes spend considerably less.
Experts like Kumael Bilgrami of Moody’s Analytics were among those that discussed such a reality, discussing how a sizable portion of Nevada’s rosy financial footing in the future will rely on future Las Vegas events such as the College Football Playoff championship next January, as well as the Men’s Final Four in 2028 and the Super Bowl in 2029.
Those events are expected to deliver big-time consumer spending and tax dollars for the Silver State over the next three years, potentially putting a dent in the slump that Sin City has seen in visitation.
That slide in visitation, with Las Vegas Tourism Board reporting a 4.3% slump in overnight visitors in August 2026 compared to the year before (and 7.5% from the same period in 2024), presents an opportunity for state leaders, Divounguy said.
“I don’t think a state should ever rely on these big events,” The Center Square chief economist said. “The big events are great. They provide somewhat of a windfall. But you know, long-term planning should not be reliant on how well a big event performs in any given year.
“So in terms of long-term planning, I think it's more sound to focus on growing the economy as opposed to relying on these one-time events,” he added.
Source: “AOL Money”
