US military secrets traded on Polymarket can tip off enemies: Report
US military secrets traded on Polymarket can tip off enemies: Report
Laura Ingle Sat, August 22, 2026 at 4:50 AM UTC
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(NewsNation) — A new report raises concerns that insiders are using classified U.S. military information to place Polymarket bets that foreign adversaries can readily decode.
“It’s shockingly easy,” Michelle Kendler-Kretsch, research fellow at Anti-Corruption Data Collective, tells “Jesse Weber Live.”
The nonprofit research organization determined that more than 150 wallets on Polymarket International may have traded on military secrets for profit. Those wagers, in turn, may have attracted copycat bets that drew attention from hostile nations.
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“Prediction markets, given that they’re allowing these military markets, are creating a whole new data space for intelligence agencies to add to other information that they already have available to them,” Kendler-Kretsch said.
Polymarket's international platform settles trades on a blockchain, meaning wagers are public, although traders remain anonymous. ACDC analyzed all settled markets through May 5 to identify "long-shot" bets, which it defines as wagers of at least $2,500 placed cumulatively in an hour or less on an outcome with odds of 35% or less.
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Within that universe, ACDC found 556 wallets it dubbed "Orcas," a nod to the killer whale's precise and selective hunting tactics. These traders typically opened an account and quickly placed a highly successful long-shot bet in niche markets where insiders may have an informational edge, before in many cases cashing out and disappearing.
Of those, there were 152 exceptionally successful wallets that bet on military and defense markets, making $8 million collectively, with an average win rate of 97.2%.
Orca traits may have other explanations, including pure luck, ACDC said. Likewise, not all potential insiders are Orcas.
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The Department of Defense does not comment on intelligence‑related matters or the findings of third-party research, a spokesperson said.
Spokespeople for Polymarket, which was founded in 2020, did not respond to requests for comment. Polymarket says it has strict controls, closely monitors for suspicious activity and has referred dozens of trader wallets to the authorities, including the Maduro case.
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